Thursday, 6 August 2009

Nice to be proven right . . .

. . . especially in what many claimed were optimistic predictions.

When the Dully Teles were predicting a decade of depression (well some were), 35% pa house price falls, parity of the £ with the Euro and $, and Mugabe levels of inflation I disagreed. (The Telegraph most likely will have deleted all my forecasts by now, so their "community members" can make them up should they want to tell a few fibs about the "socialists" . . .)

The £ is now back to $1.70, not far from the $1.70/75 I predicted as its likely average when it settles, house prices have begun to increase (Even the Inst Chartered Surveyors admit they may by the end of the year) and the fall overall is not far from the 12.5 - 17.5% I suggested over a two year period, and will be nearer that when the two years are up, and inflation/deflation are not particular problems.

We may still find the second part of the w shaped recession we seem to be on has not yet bottomed out, but it does look shallower than the first part of the W.

It is particularly encouraging that international statesmen and women, sometimes led by Brown and Darling, have acted together to prevent the worst effects of a plunge over the economic abyss, as I predicted, only the insane would oppose co-operation to prevent a 1930s style decade.

We are lucky to live in our time, for all the problems, and we stand on the shoulders of those like Keynes and Galbraith who fought to make these better times.

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